The dust has barely settled on the 2026 FIFA World Cup, but the new Premier League season is already underway. Champions Arsenal kicked off the latest campaign, beginning their title defense with a 3-0 win over newly promoted Coventry.
The Gunners are the deserved favorites to record back-to-back title wins this season. This is thanks in part to their stability, squad depth, and smart recruitment, while each of their so-called “big six” rivals have changed their permanent manager during the previous nine months.
However, these factors have driven Arsenal’s “Yes” price to 50¢. Although this may still offer value in some instances, it doesn’t reflect the true probability of the Gunners retaining their title. So, there are alternative picks with a higher potential upside.
I’ll analyze some of these picks in more detail below. I’ll also explore some possible trading strategies to help you navigate the market.
Note: Our exclusive Polymarket promo code (CORG) will get you $20 after you sign up and deposit $10. Looking for other markets? Here’s a list of the best sports prediction markets.
Arsenal Odds – Buy and Hold “Yes” Share on the Gunners
Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?Yes 49% · No 52%
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“Arsenal” | “Yes” at 50¢ | 50% Chance
Arsenal’s title win in 2025/26 was the result of their enduring stability and sustained financial investment.
Mikel Arteta is now in his eighth year of managing the North London club, for example, while he has overseen a total spend of around $1.48 billion (£1.09 billion) during his tenure.
Last season’s success was also built on the Gunners’ excellent defensive organization. They conceded just 27 goals in 38 EPL matches at a rate of 0.71 per 90 minutes, with this compensating for an occasionally stodgy and underwhelming attack.
Although center back William Saliba is currently sidelined with a long-term injury, the summer acquisition of Ezri Konsa from Aston Villa provides outstanding cover.
Bruno Guimarães has also signed for £75 million from Newcastle, with the Brazilian excellent in possession and the perfect midfield foil for Declan Rice.
Guimarães averaged 4.97 progressive passes for the Magpies in 2025/26, placing him in the 91st percentile for this metric. He’ll definitely make the Gunners better in possession and more adept at breaking down low blocks.
This shrewd recruitment represents evolution rather than revolution for Arsenal, who have the deepest and most stable squad in the league. With their big six rivals all in varying states of transition, too, it’s little wonder that the Gunners are slightly overpriced in the EPL winners’ market.
However, there’s some value in backing Arsenal at their current price of 50¢ (down from a peak of 53¢ on August 24th). This is especially true if you’re willing to hold your position until the market settles.
You could also sell profitably in the second half of the season if Arsenal dominate and their price moves above 65¢, but this does introduce the risk of being caught in a low-liquidity trap.
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Manchester City Odds – A Proven Winner With a High Potential Upside
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?Yes 23% · No 78%
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“Manchester City” | “Yes” at 23¢ | 23% Chance
The summer heralded the end of an era for Manchester City. The brilliant Pep Guardiola left the club after a decade of incredible success, which saw the Citizens win 17 major trophies and six Premier League titles.
A number of key players have also departed, including John Stones, Bernardo Silva, Tijjani Reijnders, and midfield metronome Rodri. New manager Enzo Maresca has spent approximately $364 million (£264 million) on new players so far, including a record $157 million (£116 million) on English midfielder Elliot Anderson.
This represents a huge rebuild, while the task of replacing Guardiola could yet weigh heavy on Maresca and the club. The Italian won a respectable 59.78% of his matches as Chelsea boss, but this is significantly lower than Guardiola’s overall City win-rate of 70.2%.
These factors have caused traders to undervalue City, with a current price of 23¢ not reflective of the team’s attacking quality. Some sportsbook odds also afford the Citizens a 28.6% chance of lifting the title in 2026/27, suggesting that their true win probability is higher than their price implies.
30¢ would usually be a baseline for a top-two team like City, so it won’t take much for their price to increase sharply in the coming weeks. So, consider snapping up “Yes” shares now and aim for an exit price of between 35¢ and 45¢ later in the season.
Image: Michael Regan/GettyLiverpool Odds – Capitalize on a Low “Yes” Price and Aim to Sell
Will Liverpool win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?Yes 7% · No 94%
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“Liverpool” | “Yes” at 7¢ | 7% Chance
Liverpool have endured a difficult start to the season, drawing at Newcastle before being held at home by Nottingham Forest. Despite attempting 40 shots and producing a cumulative xG of 4.34 during these games, they conceded four times and struggled during defensive transitions.
New manager Andoni Iraola is certainly struggling to create structure in midfield, while the Reds also remain vulnerable from set pieces. Iraola’s Bournemouth side shipped 18 goals from corners, free kicks, and throw-ins last season, with only Liverpool (20) conceding more.
These factors have discouraged traders and driven Liverpool’s win probability down to 7% on Polymarket. However, this ignores the Reds’ wealth of attacking quality, while Iraola’s intense, high-pressing style is perfectly suited to his core playing squad.
At 7¢, Liverpool’s price is also unlikely to fall further. This represents an …