The Las Vegas Raiders won their season opener last year before rapidly collapsing into one of the NFL’s most ineffective teams—led by a stagnant offense that rarely gave them a chance to compete.
As the Silver and Black prepare to kick off another season in less than two weeks, a similar post-Week 1 nose-dive looks far less likely.
The Raiders do have a discernable strength on offense this season – starting quarterback Kirk Cousins is a demon throwing to tight ends in play action looks – and there is a sense around the league that a move to 12 personnel (two tight ends on the field) is coming in a big way for the Raiders this season.
Why 12 Personnel Could Change Everything
Even with running back Ashton Jeanty banged up again—and potentially sitting out Week 1—there is still reason to be bullish on the Raiders outscoring Miami in the opener. That is true despite an offensive line that hindered his rookie campaign.
The Dolphins’ offensive depth chart is dreadful. “(QB Malik) Willis doesn’t have anybody to throw the football to,” one NFL exec commented to me as NFL rosters were cut over the weekend.
As long as Cousins is healthy, the Raiders are going to be markedly more productive and explosive in 12 personnel. Raiders QBs were just 21st in passer rating out of 12 personnel last season (84.8) with just seven touchdown passes to five interceptions, which is kind of hard to fathom.
Could Bowers Finally Get the Service He Needs?
Tight end Brock Bowers could be as impactful as anyone in the NFL at his position this season—provided he gets even modest quarterback play. While first-overall pick Fernando Mendoza will eventually get his shot, Las Vegas appears in no rush to expedite the rookie’s learning curve over the opening weeks.
Michael Mayer, a second-round pick in 2023, is a strong second option, and the Raiders have rebuffed trade overtures for him in the past trying to establish multi-tight end sets and “heavy” personnel as a roster strength.
“Bowers is going to dominate in this offense,” one general manager opined to me this offseason. Similar sentiments were expressed by advance scouts. The unique blend of size, speed and talent he possesses (6-foot-4, 235 pounds) cannot be overlooked; it was only the ineptitude of others around him in Las Vegas that prevented this from manifesting itself on a weekly basis.
Last year the Raiders had at least two tight ends on the field 42% of the time – which was top 10 in the NFL – but new head coach Klint Kubiak, calling plays for the Super Bowl winning Seahawks, utilized it 43% and he didn’t have close to this caliber of tight ends (TEs) available there.
In his career, Cousins has completed 202 of 260 career play-action passes to tight ends (78%) with 21 touchdowns and just one interception (123.3 rating).
Why Cousins and Kubiak Are a Strong Fit
He hasn’t had a group like this before, and Kubiak, who worked with Cousins previously in Minnesota, is implementing footwork and concepts Cousins has already mastered.
In Atlanta, Cousins was stationed in the pistol far too often, and even without Jeanty, the Raiders should be more adept at running the ball under center, with Tyler Linderbaum a record free-agent signing for a center this winter, an anchor for them now.
“The offensive line was a total disaster last year, there’s no other way to say it,” former Raiders MVP quarterback Rich Gannon told me over the summer. “They couldn’t do anything.”
Can the Raiders Avoid Another Offensive Collapse?
Kirk Cousins understands the quick-passing game at an elite level. He processes defenses rapidly and excels at locating his hot routes, even when the offensive line is under duress.
Expect to see the Raiders lean heavily into 13 personnel (three tight ends)—a scheme McVay protégé Luke Getsy can deploy for both Cousins and eventual rookie successor Fernando Mendoza.
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